Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.1%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 26, 25, 6:58 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is the Super Mario Titans leak real?
Manifold MarketsWho will break the 5/5 stranglehold on Super Mario 64 speedrunning and collect the world record bounty?
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Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiNext James Bond actor?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if SM64 is known to be beatable with 120 stars in less than 13 A presses on any official release.
- More information here: https://ukikipedia.net/wiki/A_Button_Challenge
- Most people familiar with the game believe the A press in Bowser in the Fire Sea is theoretically savable, but it's a very complicated level that has seen slow progress for 7 years now.
- Even though a slow strategy seems likely to work, people are waiting to tas the full level until they find a faster strategy, which would be likely to be very complicated.
- There are also 12 other a presses with varying degrees of promise, but none currently have any serious plans for a save.
- Generally, I will count an A press as being "saved" when it is completely console verified (usually these are live streamed on twitch).
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+42.0pt76%
- 940 - 950m-42.0pt19.2%
- 960 - 970m+0.2pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $344.8K
- 24h Vol
- $102.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+32.0pt61%
- Jack Barton-2.0pt19%
- Callum Turner-11.0pt16%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+13.1pt32%
- No Bond chosen-7.8pt16%
- Jack Barton+0.9pt14%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+6.0pt28.4%
- Barrett Pfeiffer+2.0pt18.4%
- Drew Campbell-1.0pt12.8%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- 70-80M+8.8pt63%
- 80-90M+3.0pt35%
- 60-70M-4.6pt1%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey52%
- Dune: Part Three13%
- The Black Ball11%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.9M
- 24h Vol
- $32.7K
- Primetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027 resolve?
- Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if SM64 is known to be beatable with 120 stars in less than 13 A presses on any official release.