Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2030 or later 50.4%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 23, 6:14 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This question resolves if any YouTube video displaces Baby Shark Dance as the most-viewed YouTube video of all time, or if we reach the year 2030 with Baby Shark Dance still undefeated.
- At the time this question was written, Baby Shark Dance has 13 billion views.
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-viewed_YouTube_videos
Open markets
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+42.0pt76%
- 940 - 950m-42.0pt19.2%
- 960 - 970m+0.2pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $344.8K
- 24h Vol
- $102.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+32.0pt61%
- Jack Barton-2.0pt19%
- Callum Turner-11.0pt16%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+13.1pt32%
- No Bond chosen-7.8pt16%
- Jack Barton+0.9pt14%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+6.0pt28.4%
- Barrett Pfeiffer+2.0pt18.4%
- Drew Campbell-1.0pt12.8%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- 70-80M+8.8pt63%
- 80-90M+3.0pt35%
- 60-70M-4.6pt1%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey52%
- Dune: Part Three13%
- The Black Ball11%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.9M
- 24h Vol
- $32.7K
- Primetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Post Malone: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Morgan Wallen: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what year will Baby Shark Dance be surpassed in YouTube views??
- Manifold Markets prices 2030 or later at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In what year will Baby Shark Dance be surpassed in YouTube views? resolve?
- In what year will Baby Shark Dance be surpassed in YouTube views? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is In what year will Baby Shark Dance be surpassed in YouTube views? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves if any YouTube video displaces Baby Shark Dance as the most-viewed YouTube video of all time, or if we reach the year 2030 with Baby Shark Dance still undefeated.