If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading?
AIOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.5%
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1
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 24, 26, 9:52 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves if OpenAI goes public and releases their first financial statements.
- If after reading their financials I believe any ARR numbers they claimed seem suspicions or misleading.
- An example of a clear case that could show this would be if they claimed $20b ARR at the start of 2026 but their 2026 financials show only $15B of revenue.
Open markets
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- 24h Vol
- $176.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
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- Claude-2.3pt57.7%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.9%
- Grok-2.4pt5.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
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- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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+9 more outcomes
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- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.1%
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+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $405.1K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 51% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading? resolve?
- If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves if OpenAI goes public and releases their first financial statements.