If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading?
AIOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.5%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 24, 26, 9:52 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If OpenAI goes public and releases their first financials before 2028, what will their net income margin be?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)
Manifold MarketsWill we reach AGI before Stripe goes public?
Manifold MarketsAnduril goes public before 2031
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves if OpenAI goes public and releases their first financial statements.
- If after reading their financials I believe any ARR numbers they claimed seem suspicions or misleading.
- An example of a clear case that could show this would be if they claimed $20b ARR at the start of 2026 but their 2026 financials show only $15B of revenue.
