Current community forecast
11 or 12 81.4%+24.3ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+58.4 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleOct 13, 26, 1:42 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 6:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
How many Falcon-family launches (Falcon 9 + Falcon Heavy) will SpaceX conduct in October 2026, counting by UTC launch date?
- **Resolution source:** the 2026 table on Wikipedia's "List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches), read on or after November 1, 2026.
- Cross-checked against Jonathan McDowell's launch log (planet4589.org) if the two disagree.
- **What counts:** every Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy launch attempt that leaves the pad with a UTC date from October 1 to October 31, 2026, success or failure.
- Scrubs, aborts before liftoff, static fires and Starship flights do not count.
- A Falcon Heavy counts as one launch.
