Current community forecast
Yes 71.5%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jun 21, 26, 2:49 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many orbital launches will there be in 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
KalshiHow many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
KalshiHow many SpaceX launches in September 2026?
PolymarketRules
In 2022, there were 178 successful orbital launches; SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets accounted for 61 of them, or 34% of successful launches.
- In 2023, Falcon rockets accounted for 96 out of 211, or 45%.
- In 2024, it was 133 out of 255:@/EvanDaniel/will-spacex-conduct-at-least-half-o
- In 2025, it was 165 out of 317.
- In 2026 so far, it is 72 out of 140.
- Will SpaceX be responsible for over half of successful orbital launches in 2027?
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
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- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027? resolve?
- Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In 2022, there were 178 successful orbital launches; SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets accounted for 61 of them, or 34% of successful launches.