Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 77%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 31, 26, 10:13 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves to YES if Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) is officially released to the public before Rihanna releases her next album.
- GTA 6: the official commercial launch date of the base game by Rockstar Games (currently scheduled for November 19, 2026).
- Closed betas, leaked builds, pre-loading, or early access do not count: the game must be commercially available for the general public to play.
- Digital-only would count.
- A regional-only or single-country release would not be sufficient: the game should be widely available across the world, although it need not be available everywhere.
- Rihanna album: this must consist predominantly of new material by Rihanna.