Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.8%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 31, 26, 10:13 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will GTA6 release on PC on the same day as it releases on Console?
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PolymarketRihanna scores a billboard number 1 single in 2026?
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KalshiKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
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KalshiRules
This market resolves to YES if Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) is officially released to the public before Rihanna releases her next album.
- GTA 6: the official commercial launch date of the base game by Rockstar Games (currently scheduled for November 19, 2026).
- Closed betas, leaked builds, pre-loading, or early access do not count: the game must be commercially available for the general public to play.
- Digital-only would count.
- A regional-only or single-country release would not be sufficient: the game should be widely available across the world, although it need not be available everywhere.
- Rihanna album: this must consist predominantly of new material by Rihanna.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for GTA 6 release before next Rihanna album??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does GTA 6 release before next Rihanna album? resolve?
- GTA 6 release before next Rihanna album? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is GTA 6 release before next Rihanna album? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to YES if Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) is officially released to the public before Rihanna releases her next album.