Current community forecast
03 Grok 5 released before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027 80%Leader of 22 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+30.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 1:48 PMDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
Generally I am excluding Starship projects because I have a Starship megamarket at @/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket
- Feel free to suggest other projects that might be added.
- Market clarifications 01 Cybercab is any Tesla 2 seater vehicle i.e. doesn't matter if called different things in different places.
- Operating means autonomously without any Tesla safety monitor or driver in vehicles.
- Less than 10 is just testing, 10 or more operating is needed to be considered operating.
- Robotaxi means available for public hire.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Elon projects dates megamarket?
- Manifold Markets prices 03 Grok 5 released before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027 at 80% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Elon projects dates megamarket resolve?
- Elon projects dates megamarket is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Elon projects dates megamarket settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Generally I am excluding Starship projects because I have a Starship megamarket at @/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket
