Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.9%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 2:16 AM UTCFeb 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Will any of the following automakers deliver a road‑legal passenger vehicle using Donut Lab’s all‑solid‑state Donut Battery as its main traction battery to a retail customer on or before 2030‑12‑31: Toyota, Volkswagen Group, Ford, Hyundai, Honda, Nissan, Kia, BYD, General Motors (incl.
- Chevrolet), BMW, Mercedes‑Benz, Stellantis, Suzuki, Changan, Geely, Renault, Mitsubishi, Porsche, Mazda?
- Resolution criteria
- Covered automakers: Exactly this list: Toyota; Volkswagen Group; Ford; Hyundai; Honda; Nissan; Kia; BYD; General Motors (including Chevrolet as a GM brand); BMW; Mercedes‑Benz; Stellantis; Suzuki; Changan; Geely; Renault; Mitsubishi; Porsche; Mazda.
- Vehicle type:
- Must be a series‑production, road‑legal passenger vehicle (car, SUV, or light van) homologated for public roads in at least one country.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
- $69,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $844.6K
- 24h Vol
- $817.6K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+45.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.3pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $68,500 or above97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+5.0pt27.4%
- 200-219+5.0pt22.6%
- 160-179-4.0pt20.6%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+4.0pt88.1%
- OpenAI-1.7pt9.9%
- Google-0.2pt2%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+7.5pt55.9%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.3%
- 90-114+1.9pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030? resolve?
- Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2031.
- How is Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will any of the following automakers deliver a road‑legal passenger vehicle using Donut Lab’s all‑solid‑state Donut Battery as its main traction battery to a retail customer on or before 2030‑12‑31: Toyota, Volkswagen Group, Ford, Hyundai, Honda, Nissan, Kia, BYD, General Motors (incl.