Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.1%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 6, 26, 2:16 AM UTCFeb 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Will any of the following automakers deliver a road‑legal passenger vehicle using Donut Lab’s all‑solid‑state Donut Battery as its main traction battery to a retail customer on or before 2030‑12‑31: Toyota, Volkswagen Group, Ford, Hyundai, Honda, Nissan, Kia, BYD, General Motors (incl.
- Chevrolet), BMW, Mercedes‑Benz, Stellantis, Suzuki, Changan, Geely, Renault, Mitsubishi, Porsche, Mazda?
- Resolution criteria
- Covered automakers: Exactly this list: Toyota; Volkswagen Group; Ford; Hyundai; Honda; Nissan; Kia; BYD; General Motors (including Chevrolet as a GM brand); BMW; Mercedes‑Benz; Stellantis; Suzuki; Changan; Geely; Renault; Mitsubishi; Porsche; Mazda.
- Vehicle type:
- Must be a series‑production, road‑legal passenger vehicle (car, SUV, or light van) homologated for public roads in at least one country.
