Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (72.9%)
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 10:03 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 72.9%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleJun 4, 24, 2:58 AMAug 13, 26, 10:03 AM
Trends
72.9%
27.1%
Rules
https://www.jnj.com/media-center/press-releases/janssen-announces-late-breaking-data-from-two-gene-therapy-programs-at-the-american-academy-of-ophthalmology-2022-annual-meeting
- JNJ-81201887 (JNJ-1887), formerly referred to as AAVCAGsCD59, is an investigational gene therapy for the treatment of people with geographic atrophy (GA) secondary to dry age-related macular degeneration (AMD).
- JNJ-1887 is designed to increase the expression of a soluble form of CD59 (sCD59) intended to protect retinal cells to slow and prevent disease progression.
- I expect to resolve this based on whether it passes Phase III trials but am willing to hear arguments otherwise.
- I also plan to extend the close date until it becomes clear one way or the other.
- If the pharma company working on this treatment completely abandons it before a Phase III result, I'll probably resolve NO.
