Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.6%
Forecasters
79
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 21, 26, 11:57 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Anti-CBDC Act be signed into law in 2026?
FutuurH.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill South Carolina H.3492 (partially refundable EITC) be signed into law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if H.R. 3633, the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025" (CLARITY Act) is signed into law during 2026.
- https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633
- If this exact bill fails but a substantially similar bill passes, I will use my best judgment to decide the resolution based on market commentary.
- I will likely bet on this market, so caveat emptor.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $149K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-6.0pt39%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+13.0pt37%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-8.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T21.9%
- $1.75T–$2.0T20.8%
- $1.5T–$1.75T-3.1pt16.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+18.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+13.0pt57%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $49.4K
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026? resolve?
- CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if H.R. 3633, the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025" (CLARITY Act) is signed into law during 2026.
- Where else is CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Futuur.