By the end of 2026, will global crude steelmaking capacity be at least 2,600 million tonnes per year?
CommoditiesOne-OffChina1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 26, 25, 5:20 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Use OECD Steel Outlook 2025 and its successors:
- Let CAP_2026 be the OECD estimate of world crude steel capacity for 2026.
- YES if CAP_2026 ≥ 2,600 mmt/y, otherwise NO.
- OECD puts 2023 capacity at ~2,498.6 mmt, with +165 mmt (6.7%) planned additions 2025-27.
- If most projects go ahead and retirements are modest, 2026 lands around 2.6–2.62 Gt; if cancellations/closures bite harder, it could stay in the 2.5x range.
- So 2,600 mmt is basically “do we actually realise most of the pipeline by 2026?”.
