Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
China 82%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
30
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 24, 2:58 AM UTCJan 3, 32, 7:29 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By 2030, which countries will have citizens who have walked on the moon? (post-Apollo)
Manifold MarketsHow many people will have walked on the Moon, when there are 100 people on it?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will have walked on Mars, when there are 100 people on it?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketRules
This market does not count Apollo astronauts; only astronauts who walk on the moon after market creation will count.
- To add countries, please use a simple, English, colloquial name for the country.
- I reserve the right to make good faith edits to new answers in order to match the style.
- This market closes a few days after New Year’s Day to allow for clarity around potential ambiguous circumstances.
- Related markets:
- @/jks/by-2030-which-countries-will-have-c
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By 2032, which countries will have citizens who have walked on the moon? (post-Apollo)?
- Manifold Markets prices China at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By 2032, which countries will have citizens who have walked on the moon? (post-Apollo) resolve?
- By 2032, which countries will have citizens who have walked on the moon? (post-Apollo) is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2032.
- How is By 2032, which countries will have citizens who have walked on the moon? (post-Apollo) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market does not count Apollo astronauts; only astronauts who walk on the moon after market creation will count.