KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Alaska (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
Alaska 99%Leader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$104.4K
Liquidity
$85.2K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 21, 26, 7:40 PMAug 22, 26, 4:10 PM
Probability Timeline
AI / Artificial Intelligence30%
Alaska74%
Salmonella / E. Coli40%
Prince Harry / Meghan Markle41%
Iran (3+ times)46%
Trump (5+ times)61%
Tariff24%
Ukraine / Ukrainian1%
Ballroom83%
Vance27%
Swalwell32%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline1%
Russia / Russian1%
Ceasefire0%
Supreme Court68%
ICE1%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Rules
If any host or reporter says the named outcome as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- Video of the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir will be used.
- Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
- For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
