KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 21, 2026, 7:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
4.4% or above 99%+68.0ptLeader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5.7K
Liquidity
$5.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
19.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 14, 26, 7:30 PMAug 21, 26, 7:30 PM
Trends
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
97%
97%
94%
91%
90%
81%
16%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.15% on Aug 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Aug 21, 2026, or one week following Aug 21, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.17% on Aug 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.19% on Aug 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.21% on Aug 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.23% on Aug 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 21, 2026??
- Kalshi prices 4.4% or above at 99% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 21, 2026? resolve?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 21, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on August 21, 2026.
- How is 5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 21, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.15% on Aug 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.