KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
claude-opus-5-high 96.1%+4.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$15.1K
Liquidity
$26.2K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 4:00 PMAug 24, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If qwen3.8-max is the top-ranked AI model on Aug 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
- If claude-opus-5-high is the top-ranked AI model on Aug 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in August
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt57.1%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt39%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $133.6K
- 24h Vol
- $41.5K
POLYMARKETIn which month will Anthropic IPO?
- October 2026+4.0pt73%
- September 2026+0.5pt14%
- November 2026-4.9pt4%
+14 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.7pt65%
- ChatGPT+1.2pt11.7%
- Grok-0.6pt10.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.3M
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Gemini0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $162.5K
- 24h Vol
- $25.3K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,91%
- October 31,+0.5pt83%
- October 15,+24.0pt71%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETGemini 4.0 released by which date?
- November 3081%
- October 31-1.5pt57%
- September 30+4.0pt19%
+4 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
- ZEC price on August 28
- BTC price on August 24
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- BTC price on August 31
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Best AI model on August 24?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top AI model this week?
- Kalshi prices claude-opus-5-high at 96% as of August 24, 2026.
- When does Top AI model this week resolve?
- Top AI model this week is scheduled to resolve on August 24, 2026.
- How is Top AI model this week settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If qwen3.8-max is the top-ranked AI model on Aug 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.