KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Tarcísio de Freitas 98%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$13K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Apr 25, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
São Paulo Federal Senate election winners?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the named outcome wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — São Paulo Governor Election Winner · Tarcísio de Freitas 99%
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt58.8%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva40.2%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $153.3M
- 24h Vol
- $967.8K
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
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- Democrats sweep60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep+0.3pt9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $223.1M
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-5.0pt56.4%
- Nithya Raman+7.0pt43.6%
- Total Vol
- $33.2M
- 24h Vol
- $600.7K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-0.9pt91%
- Republican Party+0.3pt9%
- Total Vol
- $34.5M
- 24h Vol
- $564.5K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for São Paulo Governor winner??
- Kalshi prices Tarcísio de Freitas at 98% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does São Paulo Governor winner? resolve?
- São Paulo Governor winner? is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2027.
- How is São Paulo Governor winner? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is São Paulo Governor winner? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.