Current implied probability
Tarcísio de Freitas 92%-3.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1
Liquidity
$13K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
92.0% / 96.0%
Spread
4.3%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Apr 25, 26, 2:00 PMOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Tarcísio de Freitas92%
Compare venues· Tarcísio de Freitas
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall80% match · auto | Medium | 94% | 0pt | $413.2 | $134.4K | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Medium | 92% | -2pt | $1 | $13K | 29 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
São Paulo Governor Election Winner
0.6%2mo
94%
+0.6%5%
1%
+22 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$241.5K
24h Vol$413.2
POLYMARKETRules
If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$4.8k92.0%POLYMARKETYes7897987987987924d ago
POLYMARKETYes7897987987987924d agoVolume trend
$1Jul 29d of dataJul 26
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If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.