Current implied probability
Kim Kataguiri 91%+87.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5.7
Liquidity
$129.5
Low liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 14.0%
Spread
133.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Apr 25, 26, 2:00 PMOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Selected outcome
Kim Kataguiri91%
Also available on Polymarket
São Paulo Governor Election Winner
0.8%3mo
-2.5%82%
+0.8%13%
+0.3%4%
+22 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$74K
24h Vol$2.2K
POLYMARKETRules
If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.