KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityMark Lamb, 15-20% 99%+1.0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$117.7
Liquidity
$6.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Jul 17, 26, 7:04 PMJul 21, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Mark Lamb, 15-20%99%
Volume trend
$118Jul 179d of dataJul 26
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If the margin of victory for Daniel Keenan in the 2026 AZ-05 Republican primary falls within 10% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Daniel Keenan minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Daniel Keenan if Daniel Keenan wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Daniel Keenan loses.
- If Daniel Keenan wins, the margin will be positive; if Daniel Keenan loses, the margin will be negative; if Daniel Keenan ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Daniel Keenan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.