Current implied probability
Ed Miliband 72%+3.0%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$29.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
58.0% / 61.0%
Spread
5.2%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jun 22, 26, 5:57 PMJan 8, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Ed Miliband72%
Compare venues· Ed Miliband
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMost active | 52% | 0pt | $5.6K | $288.9K | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | 72% | +20pt | $1.2K | $29.5K | 11 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?
1.0%5mo
+1.0%52%
50%
50%
+32 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$695K
24h Vol$5.6K
POLYMARKETRules
If Wes Streeting formally holds the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Chancellor of the Exchequer" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Chancellor of the Exchequer in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.
- If Ed Miliband formally holds the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Yvette Cooper formally holds the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Shabana Mahmood formally holds the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Pat McFadden formally holds the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.2kJul 27d of dataJul 8
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If Wes Streeting formally holds the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Chancellor of the Exchequer" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Chancellor of the Exchequer in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.
- If Ed Miliband formally holds the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Yvette Cooper formally holds the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Shabana Mahmood formally holds the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Pat McFadden formally holds the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.