KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (30%)
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, 8:40 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 21, 2026, 7:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Yes 70%
Market quality
17 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$6.9
Liquidity
$6.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
70.0% / 83.0%
Spread
13.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 21, 26, 7:00 PMAug 21, 26, 8:00 PM
Trends
70%
30%
Rules
If the value of S&P 500 is above $7676.42 at 4:00 PM ET on August 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:For example, Google Finance
- This is an Up/Down market on || Index ||: it resolves Yes if || Index || finishes higher than its reference level, and No if it finishes flat or lower.
- The reference level (|| Value ||) is the value of || Index || at the start of the hour.
- If no data is available for the period by expiration, the market resolves No.
Open markets
Equities
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.9M
- 24h Vol
- $104K
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA73.7%
- Apple14.1%
- Alphabet10.1%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.1M
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 8,000 to 8,199.99-1.0pt15.6%
- 7,800 to 7,999.99-1.0pt12.8%
- 8,200 to 8,399.99-1.0pt10.1%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETSTRC hits $100 by…
- December 31+2.0pt65.7%
- September 3034.3%
- June 30-0.4pt0%
- Total Vol
- $611.4K
KALSHINasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- 33,000.01 or above+1.0pt21.2%
- 31,500 to 31,999.997.1%
- 32,000 to 32,499.99-1.0pt5%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- SpaceX-0.5pt52%
- Anthropic48%
- xAI26%
+71 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.5M
- What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?
- How high will the S&P get this year?
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
- Private Companies - greatest valuation growth August 2026
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
- Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?
- What will Ulta say during their next earnings call?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by August 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down?
- Kalshi prices Yes at 70% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down resolve?
- S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down is scheduled to resolve on August 21, 2026.
- How is S&P 500 Hourly Up/Down settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the value of S&P 500 is above $7676.42 at 4:00 PM ET on August 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.