KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above 400,000 jobs · —
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Stored price
Above 450,000 jobs 55.5%Market line of 7 lines
Above 450,000 jobs 55.5%Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.2K
Open interest
$1.9K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above 400,000 jobsSpread
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Market data
Updated 36 minutes ago
Oct 4, 26, 11:00 PM UTCJan 8, 27, 1:29 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 400,000 jobs
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many jobs added in October?
PolymarketWill US retail sales for sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores exceed 7,800 million dollars in December 2026?
ForecastExWill US retail sales for building material and garden eq. and supplies dealers exceed 40,800 million dollars in December 2026?
ForecastExWill US retail sales for sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores exceed 8,000 million dollars in December 2026?
ForecastExWill US retail sales for miscellaneous store retailers exceed 15,800 million dollars in December 2026?
ForecastExUS retail sales in October
KalshiRules
If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 450,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All employees, retail trade” series (CEU4200000001). The expiration value is the first published December 2026 level, converted from thousands to individual jobs, minus the fixed September baseline of 15,378,400 jobs. The initial December estimate is used even if labeled preliminary. Later corrections, revisions, and benchmark updates to either month are ignored. No additional rounding applies. The measure includes seasonal and nonseasonal jobs and reflects net employment growth, not gross hires or announced hiring plans.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 400,000 jobs
- If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 400,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 350,000 jobs
- If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 350,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 300,000 jobs
- If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 300,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 450,000 jobs
- If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 450,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 550,000 jobs
- If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 550,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 500,000 jobs
- If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 500,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 600,000 jobs
- If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 600,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.