KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 105 61%Market line of 9 lines
Above 105 61%Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$1.2K
Low open interestMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 4:00 AM UTCNov 7, 26, 3:29 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Temu Credit Card Spend in September
KalshiStarbucks Credit Card Spend in October
KalshiAmazon Credit Card Spend in October
KalshiAbercrombie & Fitch Credit Card Spend in October
KalshiCredit Card Competition act enacted before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 105 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 4th. The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Temu Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more spend than year prior, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. The index is measured by Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data arrives. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 117
- If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 117 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 73
- If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 73 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 111
- If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 111 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 99
- If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 99 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 105
- If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 105 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 123
- If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 123 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 129
- If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 129 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 135
- If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 135 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 161
- If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 161 , then the market resolves to Yes.
