KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Sep 14, 2026, 11:06 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 14, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Drone37%
Trump (3+ times)65%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline1%
Terrorist / Terrorism32%
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration6%
Nuclear81%
CIA36%
Hormuz74%
Rescue / Rescued1%
Israel / Israeli1%
F-15 / F-15E63%
Ayatollah / Khamenei1%
Event does not qualifyLost
Trump (3+ times)Lost
HormuzLost
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
Israel / IsraeliLost
Rescue / RescuedLost
Terrorist / TerrorismLost
F-15 / F-15ELost
Ayatollah / KhameneiLost
America FirstLost
Obliterate / Obliterated / ObliterationLost
NuclearLost
CIALost
DroneLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
KalshiPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth's War Thunder account revealed before midterms?
Manifold MarketsPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth departure announced?
KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the 60 Minutes on Sep 13 using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the 60 Minutes on Sep 13 will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Pete Hegseth speaking in an official capacity.