KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityHeadline: -0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2% 2%-1.0%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$11
Liquidity
$38.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 3.0%
Spread
50.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 7:30 PMAug 12, 26, 12:25 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Headline: -0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%2%
Compare venues· Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Core CPI MoM - July 2026
16d
34%
26%
-0.1%25%
+4 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$61.5K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
CPI core month-over-month in Jul 2026?
17d
19%
17%
8%
+5 more outcomes
44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidity
Total Vol$18.7K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
If ALL of the following occur for before Jul 2026: Headline: -0.1% or below, Core: 0.1% or below, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For all outcomes in this market, Headline refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items, and Core refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy.
- This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
- Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Headline CPI MoM and Core CPI MoM each use ECONSTAT.
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$11Jul 1412d of dataJul 25
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If ALL of the following occur for before Jul 2026: Headline: -0.1% or below, Core: 0.1% or below, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For all outcomes in this market, Headline refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items, and Core refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy.
- This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
- Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Headline CPI MoM and Core CPI MoM each use ECONSTAT.
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).