KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93%
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$373
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.5% / 6.7%
Spread
5.2 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Feb 26, 25, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will New Zealand implement a carbon tax by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
KalshiWill the Jones Act be repealed?
KalshiWill at least part of the Americans with Disabilities Act be repealed or abolished by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsCanadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026?
KalshiWill the US implement a carbon tax by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Canada's federal carbon tax is repealed before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027??
- Kalshi prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027? resolve?
- Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Canada's federal carbon tax is repealed before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.