KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Magnitude of at least 5.6 29%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$277.5
Liquidity
$218.3
Low liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 7, 26, 8:00 PM UTCSep 8, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
PolymarketHow strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide before Oct 1, 2026?
KalshiWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
Kalshi9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
PolymarketWill there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
KalshiRules
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the United States Geological Survey
- The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS.
- If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count.
- If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+20.0pt99%
- Miami-4.0pt70%
- New Orleans-5.0pt61%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $108K
- 24h Vol
- $103.7K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above61.7%
- 88° to 89°18.7%
- 86° to 87°13.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $98K
- 24h Vol
- $97.7K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°57%
- 82° to 83°29%
- 79° or below9.3%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30K
- 24h Vol
- $29.9K
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Total Vol
- $68.2K
- 24h Vol
- $24.3K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° to 91°55.6%
- 88° to 89°21.3%
- 92° to 93°14.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25K
- 24h Vol
- $24K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in Dallas on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Singapore on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 9?
- Highest temperature in London on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 8, 2026??
- Kalshi prices Magnitude of at least 5.6 at 29% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 8, 2026? resolve?
- What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 8, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 8, 2026.
- How is What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 8, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Sep 8, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.