KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Nov 2, 2026, 10:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
4.92% or below · —
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Stored price
4.92% or below 76%
4.92% or below 76%Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$0
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
— / —
4.92% or belowSpread
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Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Oct 30, 26, 11:05 PM UTCNov 6, 26, 8:30 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · 4.92% or below
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.93% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.92% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.93% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.91% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.92% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.9% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.91% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.89% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.90% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.88% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.89% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.87% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.88% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.86% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.87% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.85% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.86% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.84% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.85% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.83% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.84% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.82% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.83% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.81% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.82% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.8% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.81% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.79% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.80% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.78% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.79% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.77% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.78% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.76% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.77% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.75% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.76% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.74% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.75% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.73% or below
- If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.74% on any business day between Oct 30, 2026 and Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
