KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 58%
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$32.6
Liquidity
$7.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
42.0% / 50.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Oct 23, 23, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 6:58 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Courts consider Apple a monopoly?
KalshiWill SCOTUS require courts to consider a defendant’s specific wrongdoing in excessive-fines cases?
KalshiWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
Kalshi[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRules
If U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington rules that Amazon has illegally maintained a monopoly by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:PACER
- Change as of 5:00 AM ET December 15 2023: The market's terms and conditions note that, "The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event that is encompassed in the Payout Criterion or the first 10:00 AM ET after date." However, the Payout Criterion only encompasses Amazon being found liable for the counts alleged by the FTC, and not just a decision or settlement happening.
- The language will be amended such that expiration, like the last trading date, will happen once claims are settled, regardless of whether Amazon is found liable for the counts alleged.
- This will be done as part of the CFTC's provisions that allow for non-economic changes to contracts, and will be reflected in the rules today, December 15th.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Courts consider Amazon a monopoly??
- Kalshi prices No at 58% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Courts consider Amazon a monopoly? resolve?
- Courts consider Amazon a monopoly? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Courts consider Amazon a monopoly? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington rules that Amazon has illegally maintained a monopoly by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.