GeminiKYC requiredVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 13, 2026, 5:58 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Yes 10.5%
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
10.0% / 11.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Mar 5, 26, 4:37 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
10.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the 1,000,000th Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robot be built?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 12, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 12, 2026?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Tesla Optimus released this year?
- If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/blog).
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fb23f2b4792a847e3bfec991659d45b22?alt=media&token=ecada097-8f14-4780-87c1-2cdbc54d648f&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 12, 2026?
- 81° to 82°+66.0pt95.2%
- 85° or above-16.0pt1%
- 83° to 84°-42.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $445.9K
- 24h Vol
- $418.2K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 12, 2026?
- Atlanta+11.0pt99%
- Seattle+3.0pt83%
- Washington DC-7.0pt74%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $283.4K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,500 or above97%
- $65,500 or above97%
- $68,000 or above97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $295.2K
- 24h Vol
- $239K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- 180-199+3.0pt21%
- 160-179+4.0pt20%
- 140-159+4.4pt16%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.9pt97%
- Google-0.9pt2%
- OpenAI-0.3pt1%
+18 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+1.0pt69.9%
- Before March 2027+7.0pt17.5%
- Before February 2027-3.0pt5.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 12, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 12, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 12, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 12 - September 14, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 12, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 13, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Denver on Sep 12, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 12, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Atlanta on Sep 12, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Tesla Optimus released this year??
- Gemini prices Yes at 11% as of September 13, 2026.
- When does Tesla Optimus released this year? resolve?
- Tesla Optimus released this year? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Tesla Optimus released this year? settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: Tesla Optimus released this year?
- Where else is Tesla Optimus released this year? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.