GeminiVerified resolution dataData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 7:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probabilityYes 42%
Market quality
17 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 70.0%
Spread
56.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Mar 5, 26, 4:37 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
42%
Mock trading isn't available for this market.
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall94% match · auto | High | 10% | 0pt | $3.7K | $121.8K | 24 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Low | 42% | +32pt | $0 | $0 | 24 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Tesla Optimus released this year?
2.0 pts5mo
90%
-2.0pt10%
80 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$338.4K
24h Vol$3.7K
KALSHIRules
Tesla Optimus released this year?
- If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/blog).
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fb23f2b4792a847e3bfec991659d45b22?alt=media&token=ecada097-8f14-4780-87c1-2cdbc54d648f&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Tesla Optimus released this year?
- If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/blog).
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fb23f2b4792a847e3bfec991659d45b22?alt=media&token=ecada097-8f14-4780-87c1-2cdbc54d648f&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).