Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.1%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 16, 24, 5:02 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
https://twitter.com/tesla_optimus
- Resolution Criteria: The market resolves "Yes" if Tesla’s Optimus Gen-2 robot is available for general sale by December 31, 2026, as confirmed by an official Tesla announcement or product launch.
- If the robot is not available by this date, the market resolves "No."
- Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2026, at 23:59 PST.
- Update 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For this market to resolve Yes, the Optimus Gen-2 must be in stock and actively shipping to customers.
- A pre-order phase alone does not qualify.
