Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 93.9%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 16, 24, 5:02 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾
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KalshiWhat year will the 1,000,000th Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robot be built?
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PolymarketRules
https://twitter.com/tesla_optimus
- Resolution Criteria: The market resolves "Yes" if Tesla’s Optimus Gen-2 robot is available for general sale by December 31, 2026, as confirmed by an official Tesla announcement or product launch.
- If the robot is not available by this date, the market resolves "No."
- Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2026, at 23:59 PST.
- Update 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For this market to resolve Yes, the Optimus Gen-2 must be in stock and actively shipping to customers.
- A pre-order phase alone does not qualify.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026? resolve?
- Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://twitter.com/tesla_optimus