KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 90%
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.6K
Liquidity
$121.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 10.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Feb 9, 24, 2:30 PMDec 31, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes10%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 10% | 0pt | $3.6K | $121.7K | 11 minutes ago | |
 Gemini94% match · auto | Low | 42% | +32pt | $0 | $0 | 31 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Gemini
Tesla Optimus released this year?
5mo
42%
17 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$521
24h Vol$0
GEMINIRules
If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$3.6kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.