Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 79.5%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 23, 23, 2:42 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?
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KalshiWill Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow much would the Tesla Optimus Robot cost to buy if it went into production?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketRules
*Optimus is the current name presented by Tesla, but if the first robot model to hit the market will change name we'll keep the market valid, just consider it to be the first humanoid robot manufactured and sold by Tesla.
- Crime committed in any jurisdiction.
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)