Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 80%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMay 23, 23, 2:42 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will Tesla begin sale of their Optimus robot ?
Manifold MarketsTesla Optimus released this year?
KalshiWill Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRules
*Optimus is the current name presented by Tesla, but if the first robot model to hit the market will change name we'll keep the market valid, just consider it to be the first humanoid robot manufactured and sold by Tesla.
- Crime committed in any jurisdiction.
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot)
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾 resolve?
- Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: *Optimus is the current name presented by Tesla, but if the first robot model to hit the market will change name we'll keep the market valid, just consider it to be the first humanoid robot manufactured and sold by Tesla.