Religion

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

2Mon

Ja1%

Nein99%

Hohe Qualität (88)Enger SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen66,7 Mio. $

24h-Volumen16.089,9 $

POLYMARKET

Who will the next Pope be?

Luis Antonio Tagle15%

Pietro Parolin6%

Pierbattista Pizzaballa5%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Mittlere Qualität (58)Enger SpreadHohes Open Interest

Gesamtvolumen146.209,6 $

24h-Volumen20,8 $

KALSHI

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

2Mon

Argentina96%

Peru92%

Uruguay90%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

Niedrige Qualität (≤49)Mittlerer SpreadHohes Open InterestNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen229.995,3 $

24h-Volumen—

KALSHI

Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026?

0.5 Pkt. (24h)2Mon

Ja4%-0.5pt

Nein96%+0.5pt

Mittlere Qualität (65)Enger SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen24.644,6 $

24h-Volumen0,8 $

POLYMARKET

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

Before Jan 1, 2027

2Mon

Ja4%

Nein96%

Niedrige Qualität (≤49)Mittlerer SpreadMittleres Open InterestNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen21.978,5 $

24h-Volumen—

KALSHI

Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?

2Mon

Ja10%

Nein90%

Niedrige Qualität (33)Spread unbekanntNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen106,7 $

24h-Volumen—

FUTUUR

Vatican III in 2026?

2Mon

Ja14%

Nein86%

Niedrige Qualität (32)Breiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen17,5 $

24h-Volumen—

POLYMARKET

Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?

2Mon

Ja4%

Nein96%

Niedrige Qualität (31)Spread unbekanntNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen0,1 $

24h-Volumen—

FUTUUR

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

2J

Ja72.3%

Nein27.7%

Community-Prognose263 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 1 Stunde

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Maitreya" before 2030?

3J

Ja42%

Nein58%

Community-Prognose4 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 2 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

16T

Ja3.6%

Nein96.4%

Community-Prognose49 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 1 Stunde

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI Cult exists by 2027

6Mon

Ja75.9%

Nein24.1%

Community-Prognose182 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 3 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

2Mon

Ja12.5%

Nein87.5%

Community-Prognose51 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 3 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?

2Mon

Ja7.8%

Nein92.2%

Community-Prognose28 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 4 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

2J

Ja2.2%

Nein97.8%

Community-Prognose192 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 17 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

3J

Chicago, IL8.3%

New Orleans, LA8.3%

St. Louis, MO8.3%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-PrognoseTyp: multiple choice

vor 3 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which religions will have gained in total self-identified practicing members from 2026 to 2057?

Buddhist50%

Hindu50%

Jain50%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-PrognoseTyp: multiple choice

vor 2 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

1J

Ja46.6%

Nein53.4%

Community-Prognose21 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 3 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the next ecumenical council of the Roman Catholic Church be held?

2025-203010%

2031-204010%

2041-205010%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose1 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 8 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?

2Mon

Old Catholic17.5%

ICAB14.5%

Liberal Catholic14.5%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose2 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Wanneer gaat Timon zich bekeren?

9J

202821.9%

202915.1%

20279.7%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose2 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When is a millennial (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

2040s33.7%

2030s11.5%

2020s1%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose2 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When is a zoomer (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

2040s13.9%

2030s5.4%

2020s2%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose2 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 6 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which biblical prophecy will be most frequently cited as being fulfilled by world events before January 1, 2027?

2Mon

Increase in Wars and Rumors of Wars (Matthew 24:6-7)11.9%

Preparation for the Third Temple (Daniel 9:27, Matthew 24:15)8.4%

Rise of the Antichrist (2 Thessalonians 2:3-4)6%

+14 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 4 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Come Judgment Day, will Jose Luis Ricon enter hell due to being heathen?

Ja50%

Nein50%

Community-PrognoseTyp: binary

vor 4 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will god is real?

2Mon

Ja50%

Nein50%

Community-PrognoseTyp: binary

vor 58 Minuten

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

2J

Ja50%

Nein50%

Community-PrognoseTyp: binary

vor 4 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Domenic Denicola attend a Mormon Transhumanism Association (MTA) conference by EOY2030?

4J

Ja50%

Nein50%

Community-PrognoseTyp: binary

vor 10 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

1J

Ja14.2%

Nein85.8%

Community-Prognose1 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 2 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Andres Gomez Emilson or Joscha Bach watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on 5-MEO-DMT by EOY2045

19J

Ja45.2%

Nein54.8%

Community-Prognose1 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 3 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be the papal name of Leo XIV's successor?

Alexander20.3%

Leo8.9%

Francis4.4%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose8 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 14 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which religion will I identify with at the end of the year?

2Mon

conventional Protestantism23.6%

Catholicism/Eastern Orthodoxy/Oriental Orthodoxy20.1%

Buddhism8.7%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose5 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

vor 16 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

2Mon

Ja90.6%

Nein9.4%

Community-Prognose25 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 58 Minuten

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Barton Rhodes or Alex Zhu watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on psychedelics by EOY2045

19J

Ja43.1%

Nein56.9%

Community-Prognose1 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 1 Stunde

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Lillian Tara have her own personal army/cult by EOY 2032?

6J

Ja50%

Nein50%

Community-Prognose1 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 10 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Vincent Weisser be canonized as a saint? (St. Weisser)

Ja20%

Nein80%

Community-Prognose1 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 11 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will basedbeffjezos end up crucified? (nailed to the cross)

Ja40.5%

Nein59.5%

Community-Prognose2 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 3 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?

3J

Ja48.2%

Nein51.8%

Community-Prognose2 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 1 Stunde

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the LDS (Mormon) Church publicly report membership numbers through 2030?

4J

Ja90.1%

Nein9.9%

Community-Prognose2 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @repligate/janus have an arranged marriage?

Ja47.9%

Nein52.1%

Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 58 Minuten

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Ted Cruz meet Sadhguru?

Ja45.3%

Nein54.7%

Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 5 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030?

3J

Ja31.6%

Nein68.4%

Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 58 Minuten

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Why Latter-day Saints Have Strong Communities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

3Mon

Ja13.5%

Nein86.5%

Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 10 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jose Luis Ricon be beatified?

Ja5.8%

Nein94.2%

Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Hindu population of the UK be more than 4 times the Jewish population of the UK by 2030?

3J

Ja70%

Nein30%

Community-Prognose4 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 1 Stunde

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

3Mon

Ja17.7%

Nein82.3%

Community-Prognose4 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 3 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Catholic Church canonize Jose Luis Ricon as a saint by 2100?

Ja5.6%

Nein94.4%

Community-Prognose4 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 2 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Are ancient afterlife myths interpretations of near death experiences?

Ja61.3%

Nein38.7%

Community-Prognose5 PrognostikerTyp: binary

vor 10 Stunden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Who will the next Pope be?

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026?

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?

Vatican III in 2026?

Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Maitreya" before 2030?

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

AI Cult exists by 2027

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Will the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Which religions will have gained in total self-identified practicing members from 2026 to 2057?

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

When will the next ecumenical council of the Roman Catholic Church be held?

If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?

Wanneer gaat Timon zich bekeren?

When is a millennial (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

When is a zoomer (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

Which biblical prophecy will be most frequently cited as being fulfilled by world events before January 1, 2027?

Come Judgment Day, will Jose Luis Ricon enter hell due to being heathen?

Will god is real?

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

Will Domenic Denicola attend a Mormon Transhumanism Association (MTA) conference by EOY2030?

Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will Andres Gomez Emilson or Joscha Bach watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on 5-MEO-DMT by EOY2045

What will be the papal name of Leo XIV's successor?

Which religion will I identify with at the end of the year?

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

Will Barton Rhodes or Alex Zhu watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on psychedelics by EOY2045

Will Lillian Tara have her own personal army/cult by EOY 2032?

Will Vincent Weisser be canonized as a saint? (St. Weisser)

Will basedbeffjezos end up crucified? (nailed to the cross)

Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?

Will the LDS (Mormon) Church publicly report membership numbers through 2030?

Will @repligate/janus have an arranged marriage?

Will Ted Cruz meet Sadhguru?

Will the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030?

Will "Why Latter-day Saints Have Strong Communities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Jose Luis Ricon be beatified?

Will the Hindu population of the UK be more than 4 times the Jewish population of the UK by 2030?

Will "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will the Catholic Church canonize Jose Luis Ricon as a saint by 2100?

Are ancient afterlife myths interpretations of near death experiences?

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