Religion | Prognosemärkte

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

5Mon

Nein

98%

89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen64,8 Mio. $

24h-Volumen19.461 $

POLYMARKET

Who will the next Pope be?

0.6%43J

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

+0.6%5%

Pietro Parolin

+0.8%5%

Anders Arborelius

+1.0%4%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen134.108,7 $

24h-Volumen251 $

KALSHI

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

3Mon

Nein

96.1%

3.9%

Community-Prognose42 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

11J

Nein

85.6%

14.4%

Community-Prognose18 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Nein

96%

Community-Prognose54 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?

Nein

72.3%

27.7%

Community-Prognose96 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

Nein

89.1%

10.9%

Community-Prognose12 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Nein

98.2%

1.8%

Community-Prognose192 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the LDS church continue to prohibit coffee by 2030

91%

Nein

Community-Prognose38 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a Second Coming of Christ by 2100?

74J

Nein

94.1%

5.9%

Community-Prognose25 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Pope Leo XIV cease to be pope before 2030?

Nein

84.5%

15.5%

Community-Prognose19 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Jordan Peterson becomes a Roman Catholic (ends 2030)

Nein

75.7%

24.3%

Community-Prognose10 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the roman catholic church permit the ordination of trans male priests by 2030?

Nein

91.5%

8.5%

Community-Prognose13 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is Jimmy Carter the second coming of Christ?

69J

Nein

99%

Community-Prognose10 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

5Mon

Peru

96%

Argentina

89%

Uruguay

79%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

49 • Niedrige QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen187.949,3 $

24h-Volumen0 $

KALSHI

Matt Dillahunty will come to know Jesus personally by 2035

Nein

93.5%

6.5%

Community-Prognose12 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Shechita banned in Canada by EOY 2026?

5Mon

Nein

93.8%

6.2%

Community-Prognose5 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will any American diocese break communion with the Roman Catholic Church before 2030?

Nein

88.3%

11.7%

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?

U.S.

+3.9%55%

Ukraine

-3.9%45%

Community-Prognose25 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075?

48J

Nein

58.9%

41.1%

Community-Prognose28 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?

5Mon

Nein

89.6%

10.4%

Community-Prognose27 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a non-trivially supported American antipope before 2060?

33J

Nein

67.7%

32.3%

Community-Prognose14 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jews destroy Al-Aqsa Mosque to Build The Third Tempel

5Mon

Nein

94.6%

5.4%

Community-Prognose8 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Donald Trump post an image of himself as the prophet Muhammad?

Nein

89%

11%

Community-Prognose192 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[ACX 2026] Will restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church be loosened during 2026?

5Mon

Nein

85.1%

14.9%

Community-Prognose15 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If the US confirms aliens exist, will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

5Mon

Nein

98.4%

1.6%

Community-Prognose21 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

5Mon

Nein

94%

40 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen20.574,1 $

24h-Volumen0 $

KALSHI

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

5Mon

Nein

88.5%

11.5%

Community-Prognose46 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

Nein

92.1%

7.9%

Community-Prognose108 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jesus return on November 25 2026

4Mon

Nein

99%

Community-Prognose7 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

77.3%

Nein

22.7%

Community-Prognose261 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first?

474J

None of the above happens by 2500

46.8%

Another pope uses the papal name Peter

20.9%

A female pope is elected

20.8%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose13 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Scientology Run Prop Bets [ADD ANSWERS]

5Mon

Someone gets arrested

100%

Charges get pressed

94.2%

Someone cosplays as Satan

50%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?

13J

63%

Nein

37%

Community-Prognose20 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will jesus respawn before 2027????

5Mon

Nein

95%

Community-Prognose12 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a significant antipope by EOY 2040?

14J

Nein

76.6%

23.4%

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?

2.0%5Mon

Nein

-0.0%63%

+0.0%38%

24 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen268,9 $

24h-Volumen0 $

POLYMARKET

Will Jesus return before the year 2030?

Nein

96.2%

3.8%

Community-Prognose18 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will Jesus Christ return (the second coming)

24J

Never

+1.3%79.4%

Other

+1.1%12.9%

After Jan 2 2030 but before Jan 1 2050

+0.5%5.4%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose26 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [actually]

5Mon

Nein

99%

Community-Prognose38 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Whose attacking the Holy Land?

8Mon

Revolutionary Army

-8.1%61.4%

Black Beard Pirates

+6.8%30.9%

Both

+1.3%7.7%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose48 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How long will Pope Leo XIV reign?

28J

Between 10 and 30 years

55.7%

Between 3 and 10 years

30.2%

30 years or longer

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose16 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a new religious movement in the USA that achieves 10,000+ followers before 2036?

Nein

53.3%

46.7%

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a Jewish Third Temple be built in Jerusalem by January 1, 2030?

Nein

86%

14%

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Saint Augustine vs Thomas Aquinas (2025-2035)

62.8%

Nein

37.2%

Community-Prognose1 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

By Aug 26, 2026 (8/26/26), will I refer at least one person to a rehab ministry? (I'm an evangelist.)

30T

Nein

58.8%

41.2%

Community-Prognose4 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Vatican III in 2026?

Nein

97%

24 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen10,3 $

24h-Volumen0 $

POLYMARKET

Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?

5Mon

Nein

96%

28 • Niedrige QualitätSpread unbekanntNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen0,1 $

24h-Volumen0 $

FUTUUR