Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 90.6%
Prognostiker
25
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert25. Sept. 23, 08:50 UTC2. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Andrew Chen still be the most famous alumni from UW's early entrance program by EOY 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhat percentage of people will believe in god on the next poll by Gallup International?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will we still believe economies should mature into becoming service-based? [vibes]
Manifold MarketsWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
@Austin is a believing Catholic.
- Will this remain the case? I'll ask him at market close.
- Resolves NO if he reports keeping to Catholic rituals / behavior standards but no longer believing in literal God.
- (I asked for and received Austin's permission before making this market.)