PolymarketGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertDieser Markt ist geschlossen und wartet auf eine bestätigte Auflösung.
Wartet auf verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm wartet auf eine vom Anbieter bestätigte Auflösung, bevor dieser Markt als aufgelöst behandelt wird.
Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 09.09.2026, 01:56 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
September 15 100%+57.0pt
Marktqualitat
65 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
15.863,7 €
Liquidität
50.013,1 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
99.1% / 100.0%
Spread
0.9 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert3. Sept. 26, 14:59 UTC30. Sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
September 15100%
September 30100%
100%
100%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Iran target Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Qatar by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Saudi Arabia by which date?
PolymarketWill a significant number of Palestinians from Gaza be permanently resettled in Egypt and/or Jordan under Trump's term?
Manifold MarketsJordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030
Manifold MarketsJordan Peterson becomes a Roman Catholic (ends 2030)
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Jordan through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Amman time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Jordan.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.