Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
None in 2026 73.1%-1.5ptFührend unter 9 OptionenMargenbereinigt: Die Rohquoten summierten sich auf über 100 % und wurden normalisiert.
None in 2026 73.1%-1.5ptMarktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
15.647,8 €
Mittlere LiquiditätSpread
3.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
3
7d-Änderung
-1.6 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 25 Minuten
13. Feb. 26, 21:45 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsChatbot Arena: How high will AI score in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
PolymarketWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
- If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
- If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/.
- If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
