Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 61.8%
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11
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert16. Juli 24, 19:45 UTC31. Dez. 26, 18:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketMajor volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves according to Wikipedia article.
- Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that:
- A mention of the eruption in the volcano's own Wikipedia article is sufficient.
- The Wikipedia page "List of volcanic eruptions in the 21st century" is also a key source, as such eruptions are typically listed there.