PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitNein 96%+0.0pt
Marktqualitat
70 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
259,2 €
Liquidität
9090,4 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
4.0% / 4.8%
Spread
0.8 pt
Enger Spread7d-Änderung
-0.2 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Minuten
29. Dez. 25, 23:2531. März 27, 0:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes4%
Volumentrend
$2953. Juli25T Daten28. Juli
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How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
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POLYMARKETIn diesen Themen aktiv
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
- Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
- Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.