Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?
GeopolitikOne-OffMiddle East3MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 67.7%
Prognostiker
72
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet9. Apr. 26, 23:05 UTC1. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Given the questionable status of the current ceasefire, this market will resolve Yes if that ceasefire ends AND a new ceasefire begins by the end of 2026 (December 31st, 11:59pm EST).
- The current ceasefire is already in a status I would describe as "probably over," but I would not count a stabilization of the current two-week ceasefire as a second ceasefire.
- If on April 23nd or later, media consensus (CNN, BBC, WaPo, etc.) is that the war is back on, any further mutually confirmed and initiated ceasefire this year will then resolve the market Yes.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
- The spirit of this market pertains to the current cessation, a potential resumption, and then a new cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran.
- Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A blockade does not by itself break the ceasefire.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75.5%
- New People (NL)-4.0pt21.4%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.5pt2%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 423.353,7 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 95.404,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA-0.1pt7%
- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 68% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026? entschieden?
- Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Given the questionable status of the current ceasefire, this market will resolve Yes if that ceasefire ends AND a new ceasefire begins by the end of 2026 (December 31st, 11:59pm EST).