Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 66% (Stand: 8. September 2026).

Wann wird Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026? entschieden?

Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.

Wie wird Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026? abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).

Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?

GeopolitikOne-Off3Mon

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 66.4%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden

Veraltet

3. Jan. 26, 15:13 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Verwandte Märkte

Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

Polymarket

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

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Kalshi

Regeln

As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).

@/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz
@/Symmetry/will-a-new-major-war-break-out-in-2-8tl6CEuhl2

Datenproblem bei diesem Markt melden

Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?

GeopolitikOne-Off3Mon

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 66.4%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden

Veraltet

3. Jan. 26, 15:13 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Verwandte Märkte

Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?

Manifold Markets

Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

Manifold Markets

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Polymarket

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

Polymarket

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

Polymarket

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Kalshi

Regeln

As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).

@/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz
@/Symmetry/will-a-new-major-war-break-out-in-2-8tl6CEuhl2

Datenproblem bei diesem Markt melden

Häufige Fragen

Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026??: Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 66% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
Wann wird Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026? entschieden?: Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
Wie wird Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026? abgerechnet?: Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).

Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?

Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?

Häufige Fragen

Offene Märkte

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?