Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030??

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 67% (Stand: 8. September 2026).

Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

GeopolitikOne-OffMiddle East3J

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Ja 67%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden

Veraltet

8. Mai 24, 20:22 UTC1. Jan. 30, 21:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

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10,000 casualties or more within a month constitutes a major war.

To make it more clear, a month is a calendar month, not a 30 day period.

Datenproblem bei diesem Markt melden

Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

GeopolitikOne-OffMiddle East3J

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Ja 67%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden

Veraltet

8. Mai 24, 20:22 UTC1. Jan. 30, 21:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Verwandte Märkte

Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by which date?

Polymarket

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Manifold Markets

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Manifold Markets

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Manifold Markets

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by which date?

Polymarket

Will Hezbollah disarm by which date?

Polymarket

Regeln

10,000 casualties or more within a month constitutes a major war.

To make it more clear, a month is a calendar month, not a 30 day period.

Datenproblem bei diesem Markt melden

Häufige Fragen

Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030??: Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 67% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
Wann wird Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030? entschieden?: Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
Wie wird Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030? abgerechnet?: Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: 10,000 casualties or more within a month constitutes a major war.

Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

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