Will the Ukraine-Russia war cause a nuclear disaster before 2028?
GeopolitikOne-OffRussland / Ukraine1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 84.1%
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Veraltet9. Jan. 25, 03:06 UTC2. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
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Will the military conflict cause release of nuclear material.
- This includes from damage to a nuclear plant or the accidental or intentional release of radiological material from a weapon (eg. "dirty bomb").
- This of course includes detonation of a tactical nuclear weapon.
- Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES only for direct causes from the Ukraine-Russia conflict, specifically:
- Nuclear disasters caused by Ukraine, Russia, or other belligerent countries directly participating in the conflict
- Does not include indirect consequences such as nuclear proliferation to other countries as a result of the conflict