Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 56%
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Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet5. Apr. 25, 13:09 UTC30. Dez. 99, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
I will decide whether or not a system counts as an ASI based on [Justice Stewart's criterion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) and whether it counts as an LLM based on a poll.
- I will not bet on this market.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 269.839,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 199.899,7 €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 107.516,9 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 85.006,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 65.253,9 €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 56% (Stand: 22. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)? entschieden?
- Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)? soll am 30. Dezember 2999 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I will decide whether or not a system counts as an ASI based on [Justice Stewart's criterion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) and whether it counts as an LLM based on a poll.