Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
GeopolitikOne-OffRussland / Ukraine2Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 11:13 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 97.4%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet8. Nov. 24, 17:24 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?
Manifold MarketsRussian Luna-27 probe to find resources that can be used as fuel on the lunar soil by the end of 2028?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
The delivery method of the device is irrelevant.
- The device itself must detonate causing a nuclear chain reaction and explosion.
- A dirty bomb does not cause a chain reaction and so will resolve to “No.”
- The territory of Ukraine is considered to be all territory claimed prior to the 2014 Russian invasion and seizure of Crimea and Donbas.