Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?
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Daten vom 26.10.2026, 04:28 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 90.7%
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Veraltet12. März 26, 20:05 UTC20. Jan. 29, 20:49 UTC
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Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurRegeln
This market regards the current Trump/Vance administration, including if J.D. Vance takes over from Donald Trump for any reason in the current presidential term ending January 20th, 2029.
- If a nuclear weapon is confirmed detonated by the United States government, this market resolves Yes.
- This includes weapons testing (but not just hypothetical theories about Richter scale readings in Nevada).
- In order for a denied event (test or strike) to count, the evidence would have to be widely acknowledged by mainstream media, ie.
- CNN and WaPo and the BBC all saying that there was a seismic event AND a radioactive event AND major inside sources all saying the same thing.
- This can also resolve Yes if a US proxy uses a nuclear device with the Trump administration's confirmed approval and assistance, such as if the US provides Israel with a nuclear device and with intelligence to deploy it, which is then detonated.
