Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 88.9%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet25. Juni 23, 03:24 UTC1. Jan. 00, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100?
Manifold MarketsIf ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
Manifold MarketsIf ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves NO if humanity is still around in 2100.
- If we are not still around, then the resolution is up to whatever intelligent non-human beings, if any, exist in our wake.
- Hopefully, they will resolve it correctly based on whether or not it was nanotechnology that did us in.
