Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 96%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet26. Juni 23, 04:16 UTC1. Jan. 00, 05:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
Manifold MarketsIf ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
Manifold MarketsWill nanotechnology wipe out humanity by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Will extraterrestrials destroy the human race? Only counts alien species that originate from another planet, not life whose ancestry can be ultimately traced back to Earth.
- Resolves NO if humanity is still around by then.
- Otherwise, the resolution is up to the aliens.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 96% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100? entschieden?
- Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100? soll am 1. Januar 2100 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Will extraterrestrials destroy the human race? Only counts alien species that originate from another planet, not life whose ancestry can be ultimately traced back to Earth.