Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 59.6%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet14. Okt. 25, 15:25 UTC31. Dez. 34, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will India settle their Kashmir conflict with Pakistan before January 1st 2035?
Manifold MarketsIndia strike on Pakistan by which date?
PolymarketWill Pakistan become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pakistan have a major civil war by the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRegeln
Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Take over" is defined as controlling the government, regardless of whether this occurs through a coup or democratic process.
- Islamist groups include organizations like Hamas.
- Currently, Tehreek-e-Labbaik is noted as the only major Islamist political party in Pakistan (less extreme than Hamas).
- Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Tehreek-e-Labbaik is a small constituent of a parliamentary coalition of mostly non-islamist parties, that will not count as an islamist takeover.
- Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be delegated to ChatGPT (or Gemini if ChatGPT no longer exists in 2035) to determine whether a group/individual qualifies as Islamist.
- Asim Munir has been ruled to not count as an Islamist for resolution purposes.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 60% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035? entschieden?
- Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035? soll am 31. Dezember 2034 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Take over" is defined as controlling the government, regardless of whether this occurs through a coup or democratic process.