Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Middle EastGeopolitikOne-Off3JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 70.5%
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Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet15. Juni 25, 01:06 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
- the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
- The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year.
- That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
- This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).
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- Yes-0.1pt2%
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- Yes-0.1pt0%
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 71% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030? entschieden?
- Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.