Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Naher OstenGeopolitikOne-Off3J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 70.5%
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Verzogert15. Juni 25, 01:06 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?
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PolymarketWill the Graham Act sanctions take effect in 2026?
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PolymarketWill Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz before April 5, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
- the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
- The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year.
- That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
- This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).