Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 97%
Prognostiker
30
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet17. März 26, 14:08 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic by EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to exist before the EU does?
Manifold MarketsWill NATO cease to exist before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation-state by December 31, 2026. "Ceases to exist" means the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer recognized as an independent country by the United Nations, its territory is partitioned among other nations, or it is formally dissolved or annexed.
- Resolution will be determined by official UN recognition status and major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC).
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
