Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 81%
Prognostiker
28
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet11. Dez. 25, 10:57 UTC31. Dez. 99, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will global far-right global regime cause prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketRegeln
This is a long-term YES/NO market about which “lasts longer”: Elon Musk as a living person, or the European Union as an ongoing political union (including clear institutional successors that carry on its identity).
- How this market resolves
- YES – Resolves YES if Elon Musk ceases to exist (see definition below) before the EU (as defined below) ceases to exist.
- NO – Resolves NO if the EU ceases to exist before Elon Musk ceases to exist.
- N/A – Resolves N/A if:
- The two events are effectively simultaneous in real-world terms (no sensible way to say which came first), or
